VIII. Understanding World Affairs

Learning how to live together is mankind’s greatest challenge. It is often noted with despair that despite dramatic technical progress, mankind appears to be making only painfully slow progress toward learning how to govern ourselves. This site offers a variety of methods, all grossly underutilized, of value for understanding world affairs, beginning with the fairly familiar but also very primitive approach known as “scenario analysis.” More rigorous and ambitious approaches include system dynamics and complex-adaptive systems, but perhaps the key is to return to good, old scenario analysis…and give it rigor by integrating more advanced methods whose focus lacks the attractive breadth and flexibility of scenario analysis. In return, scenario analysis can perhaps provide a context within which we can learn how to integrate the “more rigorous and ambitious approaches” themselves.

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